Strategic Impact Analysis: Projected Consequences of USAID Dissolution

Executive Summary

This analysis projects the cascading effects of a hypothetical complete dissolution of USAID over a ten-year period. Our findings indicate that dissolving USAID would trigger compounding crises that would severely damage U.S. strategic interests, national security, and economic prosperity while creating unprecedented global instability.

Methodology

This assessment uses strategic foresight and red teaming methodologies to analyze potential outcomes across multiple time horizons: 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years post-dissolution. The analysis considers interconnected systems including geopolitics, economics, public health, environment, and security.

Key Findings

Immediate Phase (Years 1-3)

• Rapid expansion of Chinese and Russian influence in strategic regions

• Collapse of critical health programs, including HIV/AIDS treatment networks

• Deterioration of disaster response capabilities

• Initial refugee movements toward Europe and U.S. borders

• Loss of disease surveillance networks

Intermediate Phase (Years 3-5)

• Multiple state failures in fragile regions

• Emergence of new terrorist organizations in governance vacuums

• Major famines and humanitarian crises

• Significant realignment of international alliances away from U.S.

• Systemic breakdown of global health infrastructure

Long-term Phase (Years 5-10)

• Fundamental reshaping of global power structure

• Formation of multiple “mega-refugee” cities (5M+ population)

• Concurrent global pandemics

• Collapse of critical environmental systems

• Severe disruption of international trade networks

Critical Feedback Loops

Security Spiral

1. Program termination → State instability

2. Instability → Rise of non-state actors

3. Non-state actors → Regional conflicts

4. Regional conflicts → Greater instability

Economic Degradation Cycle

1. Loss of development programs → Market access reduction

2. Market reduction → Corporate losses

3. Corporate losses → Job losses

4. Job losses → Reduced U.S. economic power

Health System Collapse

1. Lost prevention programs → Disease resurgence

2. Disease resurgence → Healthcare strain

3. Healthcare strain → Economic impact

4. Economic impact → Reduced response capability

Direct Impacts on U.S. Interests

Economic Losses

• U.S. corporations lose billions in contracts and market access

• Supply chain disruptions affecting U.S. manufacturing

• Loss of emerging markets to strategic competitors

• Reduced access to critical minerals and resources

National Security Threats

• Increased terrorist recruitment and activity

• Loss of military basing rights as host nations realign

• New security threats requiring costly military responses

• Reduced intelligence and regional cooperation

Public Health Vulnerabilities

• Increased pandemic risks from collapsed surveillance systems

• Resurgence of controlled diseases affecting U.S. population

• Strain on domestic healthcare systems

• Lost research and response capabilities

Domestic Political Impact

• Increased refugee pressure on U.S. borders

• Higher military and security spending requirements

• Job losses in aid-related industries

• Reduced global influence and leadership

Cost Analysis

Current Investment

• USAID annual budget: ~$27.4 billion (FY2024)

• Represents less than 1% of federal budget

Projected Crisis Response Costs (Post-Dissolution)

• Military interventions: $100B+ per crisis

• Refugee management: $50B+ annually

• Disease outbreak response: $30B+ per incident

• Economic losses: $500B+ annually in trade impacts by year 10

Strategic Recommendations

1. Maintain and potentially expand USAID funding as critical national security investment

2. Strengthen integration of USAID programs with other strategic tools

3. Improve public communication about USAID’s role in U.S. security and prosperity

4. Develop metrics to better quantify preventive benefits of development programs

Conclusion

The dissolution of USAID would create cascading crises that would fundamentally threaten U.S. strategic interests and global stability. The cost of addressing these crises would far exceed USAID’s current budget, while many negative outcomes would be effectively irreversible. USAID should be viewed not as foreign aid but as a critical strategic asset for maintaining U.S. global leadership and national security.

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Prepared by: Strategic Analysis Team Date: February 8, 2025